OH-1 & OH-16

OK, we begin our list in the ultimate battleground state, Ohio, where one Republican incumbent was defeated Nov. 4 and Democrats won another open seat that had long been held by the GOP.

In OH-16, Democratic state Sen. John Boccieri enjoyed a 7-to-1 fundraising advantage over Republican state Sen. Kirk Schuring in the contest to fill the seat vacated by retiring Republican Rep. Ralph Regula -- a seat that Regula held for 35 years. Boccieri won 54-46.

In Cincinnati-based OH-1, Rep. Steve Chabot was narrowly defeated (51%-49%) by Democratic challenger, state Rep. Steve Driehaus. Chabot was one of the Republicans first elected to Congress in the 1994 "Republican Revolution" led by Newt Gingrich.

Associated Press article about the '98 results in OH-16 and OH-1

Freshmen incumbents who win narrow victories are generally viewed as top prospects for defeat in the next cycle, because two years in office doesn't provide much time to build a reputation for constituent services, a national leadership image, or substantial fundraising reserves.

Ohio has a strong GOP infrastructure, and there should be several Republican state and local officials in these districts who can throw their hats in the ring for the kind of competitive primaries that help generate grassroots enthusiasm.

Since these are the first two districts on the list, let me explain what I think are the keys to success for the 50 in '10 Project:

• Candidate recruitment -- We need to identify potential Republican challengers and encourage them to consider seeking the office. These may be current office-holders (mayors, state legislators, etc.) or independent businessmen or even average Joe the Plumber types. Personally, I favor younger candidates (under 50), but this isn't about my personal preferences, it's about finding a good "fit" between the right candidate and the district.
• Multi-candidate primaries -- Tough primary fights produce stronger general-election campaigns, since the winner of the primary must develop better organizational and fundraising capacity. And in determining the strengths and weakenesses of candidates, it's always better to vet the candidates in the primary than to have them implode in the general. One of the problems of the GOP in recent years has been a top-down meddling approach by the national party organization, picking favorite candidates and discouraging competitive primaries. Ultimately, the party must be rebuilt from the grassroots up, and competitive primaries are part of that rebuilding process.
• Volunteer activists -- We must identify and support Republican activists in these districts. An important motivating factor for volunteers in key races is the knowledge that they are involved in elections of national consequence, and that fellow Republicans around the country are encouraging and supporting them in their efforts.
• News-gathering and publicity -- I hope to make this site a one-stop source for news on the most important GOP challengers in 2010. Most Republican activists live in non-competitive districts. So we're going to hook you in to the key competitive races where the GOP is "playing offense" in the mid-terms. This will help generate nationwide interest in these campaigns and funnel the efforts of activists to support these challengers.
• Fundraising -- We need to start now trying to develop fundraising resources for the 2010 campaign even before Republican challengers cast their hats in the ring. How do we do that? By directing money toward state and county GOP organizations. If activists at the national level will give to state and county parties involved in these key races, that will help build the grassroots infrastructure to make the 2010 midterms competitive.

With that in mind, here is the contact information for the party organizations involved in OH-1 and OH-16:

OHIO REPUBLICAN PARTY
211 South 5th St. Columbus Ohio 43215
Phone: (614) 228-2481
DONATE ONLINE

OH-1

• Hamilton County Republican Party
  700 Walnut St., Suite 309, Cincinnati, Ohio 45202
  Phone: (513) 381-5454 Fax: (513) 977-3545
  DONATE ONLINE

• Butler County Republican Party
  5964 Golf Club Lane, Hamilton, Ohio 45011
  Phone: (513) 893-5292 Fax: (513) 858-4634
  DONATE ONLINE

OH-16

• Wayne County Republican Party
  667 Dennis Circle, Smithville, Ohio 44677


• Ashland County Republican Party
  P.O. Box 312, Ashland, OH 44805


• Medina County Republican Party
  P.O. BOX 1482, Medina, Ohio 44258
  Phone: (330) 723-0415
  DONATE ONLINE


• Stark County Republican Party
  2727 Fulton Dr. N.W.Canton, Ohio 44718
  Phone (330) 453-6708
  DONATE ONLINE

Remember that "Early Money Is Like Yeast" -- contributions early in a campaign cycle are most important, since that money can be used to fund additional fund-raising efforts. If we can get lots of donors nationwide making small donation (in the $20-$100 range) to these state and county GOP organizations over the next several months, that will do a lot to help them build the kind of strong local campaign machinery necessary to succeed in these challenges.

What is Fifty in '10?

This blog is a project that aims to identify the 50 most vulnerable Democrat-held seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. We will collect news items, develop fundraising information, and help publicize Republican candidates in these districts for the 2010 mid-term election campaign. The assistance of Republican activists in these districts is requested.